Data-Driven Site of the Month: November 2018

Out of the previous posts on this site, the one about which I’ve received the most feedback has been this one about making money through the Michigan Lottery. A number of people who live in Michigan took advantage of the free money (which still is available at the time of this writing), and I received emails from people in other states asking about different games and +EV (positive expected value) opportunities in their particular state.

I can take the hint: What people want is an ongoing list of resources where they can personally profit or benefit from the data-driven thinking described throughout this blog.

So without further ado, here is the #1 new site I recommend for November 2018. This is a +EV opportunity like the Michigan Lottery, but it works in 25 states plus the District of Columbia, not just Michigan. (Eligible states are AK, AR, CA, CO, CT, DC, FL, GA, IL, KY, MI, MN, NE, NM, NC, ND, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TX, UT, WV, WI, and WY.)

The November 2018 Data-Driven Site of the Month is MyPrizePicks.com.

PrizePicks is a daily fantasy sports site where you choose whether players will go above or below a certain number of points to win cash. You can guess 2 over/unders to win 2.5 times your wager, guess 3 to win 5 times your wager, or guess 4 to win 10 times your wager.

Don’t watch sports? It doesn’t matter. Here’s how to guarantee a profit on that site:

1. Register on MyPrizePicks.com using referral code 014205. You will immediately get a free 2-player entry that would normally be worth $10. Guess two NBA over/unders (even if just by clicking randomly), and if you win (which should happen just less than 1/4 of the time, because ties lose), you’ll get a free $25. There’s a free $6.25 of EV right there.

2. Only deposit money when they offer you a 100%+ bonus. Offers for a 100% or even 150% deposit match bonus come from them fairly regularly. This past week, for example, they sent out an offer where you could deposit up to $1000 with a 100% match bonus and also receive a 50% rebate on NBA losses that same day.

I see an asterisk. There’s always an asterisk. So what’s the fine print?

Their next to last line has a typo but is saying that you must play through your deposited money once before withdrawing anything. Another interesting thing to know is that you can only wager $1000 per day on their site, and you can only bet up to $100 on any individual wager.

So the optimal play here is as follows: deposit $500. They will match it. Spend all $1000 on 2-player NBA games, but bet ALL FOUR POSSIBLE WAYS on the same 2 players. That is, bet on both players to go over their predicted scores, bet both to go under, bet the first to go over and the second to go under, and bet the first to go under and the second to go over. (Edit: this method is now banned on their site. Playing normally still results in the same +EV expectation, but with more variance.)

In this way you will win one of the four bets for certain unless a player ties their exact amount predicted. To mitigate that risk of a tie, I recommend spending $62.50/bet (so $250 to cover all four bets) and then repeating that four times with four different pairs of players. If you avoid all ties, your $1000 in bets will win $625, and you will also get a rebate of $187.50 (since you will have lost in $375 worth of real-money, not promo cash, games).

Playing through that $187.50 in a similar manner would lead to an EV result of $117.19. Thus you should end up with a withdrawable total of $742ish, for an overnight profit of $242 on your $500 investment.

(The reason depositing $1000 is not optimal in the example above in my opinion is because you can only spend $1000 per day, and your promo balance spends first, so you would not get any rebate. Avoiding ties, you would win $250 from this method, but there would be twice as many chances for ties. I recommend the $500 route instead.)

3. Only play the NBA games. As mentioned, all ties lose, and because of the way their scoring systems work, ties (where the player gets exactly the number of points you are betting the over/under on) happen far more often in other sports than they do in the NBA.

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I know that’s a pretty dense read, but if you register for MyPrizePicks.com (for free) with referral code 014205, you can use the free game to get acclimated to the site. Then you could just try depositing something like $50 the first time they give you the 100%+ match bonus, and you can figure the system out with smaller stakes before ramping it up to the max +EV possible.

If you know of other sites that offer +EV opportunities, please share them in the comments below or email me directly at mark@thedatadrivenlife.com. I’d love to take advantage of them with you and would love to highlight them in future posts as well.